calculate the probability of you getting long covid after "living with virus" for years.
Parameters:
weekly-infection-rate: The rate of you getting a new infection in any week. According to ONS data, this number averaged to be around 3% in UK in 2022.
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/2september2022
infection-lc-chance: The UK’s National Institute for Health Care and Excellence (NICE) defines COVID-19 symptom duration with three categories: <4 weeks, 4–12 weeks, and >12 weeks),with the latter two categories both considered ‘long COVID’. The rate of you getting long covid() after each infection.
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30836-0
healrate-s: short term heal rate for long covid. The proportion of 4-12 week LC transformed into recovery, or 1-proportion of 4-12 week LC transform into >12week LC.
healrate-l: >12 week LC is hard to heal, this parameter describes the annual heal rate of it. A research shows that among hospitalized patients, 68% show long covid symptoms at 6 months, and 55% show that at 2 years, this transfers to an annualized heal rate of 13.2%.
Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(22)00126-6/fulltext#%20
infection-lc-incr: Chance of long covid increases with each infection. This parameter describes its increment after each infection.
infection-lc-max: maximal long covid chance after repeated infections
healrate-s-decay: This parameter describes the chance increment of short-term LC transforms to long-term LC after each infection, or the chance decrement of short-term LC heals to healthy.
healrate-s-min: minimal chance of short-term LC heals to healthy.
death-rate: death rate for acute infection if you don't have LC.
death-rate-lc: death rate for acute infection if you already have LC.
For realistic scenario
python lc_calculator.py --mode realistic
For optimistic scenario (assume humans develop some good medicine at reducing infection and LC)
python lc_calculator.py --mode optimistic
For pessimistic scenario (assume the virus mutates and infects more rapidly and causing higher chance of LC)
python lc_calculator.py --mode pessimistic
Or you can personalize parameters. You can setup a basic mode to inherent all its parameters and adjust only your adjusted params.
For example
python lc_calculator.py --mode realistic --infection-lc-rate 0.19
The default mode is realistic.
Sample Results under triple vaccination+BA.2-strength virus (LC: 13% per infection, 1.5% bonus per prior infection, with 65% short-term heal rate(1% decrease per prior infection) and 25% annualized long term heal rate. Death: 0.2% per infection, 1% if you already have LC)
Year 1 LC: 9.77% Death: 0.38%
Year 2 LC: 16.00% Death: 0.85%
Year 3 LC: 21.40% Death: 1.38%
Year 5 LC: 30.29% Death: 2.64%
Year 7 LC: 37.27% Death: 4.07%
Year 10 LC: 45.19% Death: 6.49%
For activity-limiting LC (4.5% chance per infection, 0.4% chance bonus per prior infection, 10% max per infection)
Year 1 3.47%
Year 2 5.79%
Year 3 7.90%
Year 5 11.70%
Year 7 15.08%
Year 10 19.19%
also support variants (--mode original, delta, BA.1, BA.2, BA.5https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.04.22279588v1) for calculation.