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tktonny committed Oct 27, 2020
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42 changes: 21 additions & 21 deletions cal.html
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<meta name="description" content="疫情预测-疫情地图-2019-nCov">
<meta name="keywords" content="2020 wuhan Novel coronavirus, 武汉肺炎, geo, charts, 地图,疫情,疫情可视化,疫情预测, 2019-nCov, free,2019-nCoV, coronavirus, novel, visualization, map, china, wuhan, heatmap,wh">
<meta name="author" content="Tony Xia">
<link rel="icon" href="img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/head.css">
<link rel="icon" href="./img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/head.css">
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui-theme.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/lib/chosen/chosen.min.css" />
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/echarts/4.4.0-rc.1/echarts.min.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/jquery/1.11.3/jquery.min.js"></script>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-BVYiiSIFeK1dGmJRAkycuHAHRg32OmUcww7on3RYdg4Va+PmSTsz/K68vbdEjh4u" crossorigin="anonymous">
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/js/bootstrap.min.js" integrity="sha384-Tc5IQib027qvyjSMfHjOMaLkfuWVxZxUPnCJA7l2mCWNIpG9mGCD8wGNIcPD7Txa" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<script src="js/backtotop.js"></script>
<script src="./js/backtotop.js"></script>
<style>
ul.nav-tabs {
margin-top: 20px;
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<header>
<div style="width: 100%; height: 105px">
<img src="img/logo.png" alt="sufe sime" class="top">
<img src="./img/logo.png" alt="sufe sime" class="top">
<div id="top_right" class="visible-md visible-lg">
<p id='hide'>武汉加油 <span id="red">中国</span>加油</p>
</div>
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -225,7 +225,7 @@ <h4>申明</h4>
<div id="fixedTools" class="totop position-fixed d-none d-xl-flex" style="top: 250px">
<div class="btn btn-light" style="width: 165px;">
<p style="text-align: center;">模型预测图</p>
<img src="img/gif_model1.gif" alt="模拟结果gif" />
<img src="./img/gif_model1.gif" alt="模拟结果gif" />
<p style="text-align: center;font-size:8px;">（点击返回顶部）</p>
</div>
</div>
Expand All @@ -247,7 +247,7 @@ <h4>1、传统的SEIR模型</h4>
</ol>
<br>
<p>其中，这几类人群之间的相互转换可以由如下的图片表示:</p>
<img src="img/cal0.png" alt="seir" width="350px" />
<img src="./img/cal0.png" alt="seir" width="350px" />
<br>
<br>
<p>以微分方程组的形式表示则为</p>
Expand All @@ -260,19 +260,19 @@ <h4>1、传统的SEIR模型</h4>
<br>
</div>
<div class="col-md-4 col-sm-12">
<img src="img/cal1.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="img/cal2.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal1.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal2.png" alt="seir" />
</div>
</div>
<p>传统的SEIR模型通过求解如上微分方程组，即可模拟传染病在一个区域内的传播。</p>
<br id="section-2">
<hr/>
<h4>2、动态SEIR预测模型介绍</h4>
<p>在传统的SEIR模型中，传染率β为固定不变的常数，但是在疫情的具体情况中，随着政府管控的加强，民众防范意识提升，医疗技术的进一步发展，在实际情况下，传染率β应该随着时间逐步下降，所以，我们进一步假设SEIR模型中，β服从Hill decay function ，即β(t)=1/(1+(k/L)^k)，方程参数中的L表示传染率减半的时间，hill函数的图像由下图所示:</p>
<img src="img/cal3.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal3.png" alt="seir" />
<br>
<p>同时，考虑到在本次疫情中，存在轻症、重症等较为复杂的情况，为了更好的预测模型中的死亡人数，我们将原来SEIR模型中的R状态，拆分为了4个状态，分别是Recovered（治愈），Hospitalized（住院），Critical（重症），Death（死亡），这样，我们的新模型可以用如下微分方程组描述:</p>
<img src="img/cal4.png" alt="seir" style="height: 500px;" />
<img src="./img/cal4.png" alt="seir" style="height: 500px;" />
<p>模型中各参数的含义如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>R_t=在t时刻的基本再生数，等于βt*平均感染期;</li>
Expand All @@ -286,7 +286,7 @@ <h4>2、动态SEIR预测模型介绍</h4>
</ul>
<p>以上假设参照了<a href="https://www.kaggle.com/covid-19-contributions" target="_Blank">www.kaggle.com/covid-19-contributions</a></p>
<p>为达到预测的目的，我们将模型与实际数据进行拟合，为求解最优的模型参数，我们求解如下误差目标函数的最小值:</p>
<img src="img/cal4.5.png" alt="seir" style="height: 180px;" />
<img src="./img/cal4.5.png" alt="seir" style="height: 180px;" />
<p>其中目标函数中的I_cum 代表实际累积患病人数，I_cumpre代表使用模型预测的累积患病人数，D_cum 代表实际累积死亡人数，D_cumpre代表使用模型预测的累积死亡人数，通过拟合模型求解最优参数，我们再使用最优模型对后来传染病传播情况进行预测。</p>
<br id="section-3">
<hr/>
Expand All @@ -306,11 +306,11 @@ <h5>国内预测:</h5>
<p>我们将2月13日到2月19日的数据作为模型的输入，预测2月20到2月23日的实际患病人数，并与实际情况对比，结果如下：</p>
<div class="container" style="width: 100%;">
<div class="col-md-6 col-sm-12">
<img src="img/cal5.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal5.png" alt="seir" />
<p style="text-align: center;">湖北</p>
</div>
<div class="col-md-6 col-sm-12">
<img src="img/cal6.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal6.png" alt="seir" />
<p style="text-align: center;">非湖北</p>
</div>
</div>
Expand All @@ -319,7 +319,7 @@ <h5>国内预测:</h5>
<p>由于疑似病例的报告并不精确到省级，对处于潜伏期的人数难以估计，且湖北省的治愈率与死亡率均比较特殊，所以对湖北省的预测偏差可能较大。</p>
<br>
<h5>美国预测:</h5>
<img src="img/cal6.5.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal6.5.png" alt="seir" />
<p>可以看出，对于之前的数据，模型的拟合效果比较好，但是随着时间的推移，由于实际情况可能会发生进一步的变化，而模型对假设的依赖较大，这些假设与实际上的差异可能导致模型的误差会不断增大。</p>
<p>同时，考虑到应对措施的进步，可以判断在长期内实际患病人数应该要低于模型预测值。</p>
<p>由于对于美国，各州的防疫政策不同，故对美国整体进行模型估计的误差可能较大。</p>
Expand All @@ -338,13 +338,13 @@ <h4>实时R0监测模型</h4>
<h4>实时R0监控算法</h4>
<br>
<p>我们认为，t时刻新增的感染人数k与R_t相关，同时R_t也和之前的所有R_t-m相关，所以，我们采用贝叶斯方程来进行R_t的计算:</p>
<img src="img/cal13.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal13.png" alt="seir" />
<p>其中，根据相关的传染病相关论文研究，我们假设:</p>
<img src="img/cal14.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal14.png" alt="seir" />
<br>
<img src="img/cal15.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal15.png" alt="seir" />
<p>根据以上公式，我们可以计算出所有天数R_t的概率分布，前2天的计算公式示例如下:</p>
<img src="img/cal16.png" alt="seir" />
<img src="./img/cal16.png" alt="seir" />
<p>在求得所有R_t的概率分布之后，我们使用极大似然估计估计出每天的R_t值<br> 以美国全国的情况为例，R_t的变化情况如下:
</p>
<div id="usa-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 500px;"></div>
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -447,13 +447,13 @@ <h4>实时R0监控算法</h4>
<div class="col-md-12" style="height: 15px;"></div>
<div>
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;">
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像1.jpg" alt="t.k.t">
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像1.jpg" alt="t.k.t">
</div>
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;">
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像2.jpg" alt="lmh">
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像2.jpg" alt="lmh">
</div>
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;">
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像3.jpg" alt="cc">
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像3.jpg" alt="cc">
</div>
</div>
</div>
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20 changes: 10 additions & 10 deletions chart.html
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<meta name="description" content="疫情预测-疫情地图-2019-nCov">
<meta name="keywords" content="2020 wuhan Novel coronavirus, 武汉肺炎, geo, charts, 地图,疫情,疫情可视化,疫情预测, 2019-nCov, free,2019-nCoV, coronavirus, novel, visualization, map, china, wuhan, heatmap,wh">
<meta name="author" content="Tony Xia">
<link rel="icon" href="img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/head.css">
<link rel="icon" href="./img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/head.css">
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui-theme.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/lib/chosen/chosen.min.css" />
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/echarts/4.4.0-rc.1/echarts.min.js"></script>
<script src="incubator-echarts-4.6.0/map/js/china.js"></script>
<script src="./incubator-echarts-4.6.0/map/js/china.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/jquery/1.11.3/jquery.min.js"></script>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-BVYiiSIFeK1dGmJRAkycuHAHRg32OmUcww7on3RYdg4Va+PmSTsz/K68vbdEjh4u" crossorigin="anonymous">
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/js/bootstrap.min.js" integrity="sha384-Tc5IQib027qvyjSMfHjOMaLkfuWVxZxUPnCJA7l2mCWNIpG9mGCD8wGNIcPD7Txa" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
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<div id="chartsBlock" class="col-md-7 col-sm-12" style="top: 20px;">
<div id="tab_1">
<iframe src="charts'.html" height=690px width=100% frameborder="0" scrolling="0"></iframe>
<iframe src="./charts'.html" height=690px width=100% frameborder="0" scrolling="0"></iframe>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</main>

<div style="height: 25px;"></div>

<script src="js/chart_firstblock_map.js"></script>
<script src="js/chart_firstblock_pies.js"></script>
<script src="./js/chart_firstblock_map.js"></script>
<script src="./js/chart_firstblock_pies.js"></script>

<footer style="background-color: #1e1e1e10;">
<div class="container">
<div class="col-md-4" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);text-align:center;height: 120px;">
<div class="col-md-12" style="height: 15px;"></div>
<div>
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;">
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像1.jpg" alt="t.k.t">
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像1.jpg" alt="t.k.t">
</div>
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;">
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像2.jpg" alt="lmh">
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像2.jpg" alt="lmh">
</div>
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;">
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像3.jpg" alt="cc">
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像3.jpg" alt="cc">
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="col-md-4 visible-md visible-lg" style="text-align:center;height: 120px;line-height: 100px;">
<div style="border-top:none; border-left:1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); border-right:1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); ">
<a class="footer-logo" href="https://www.shufe.edu.cn/"><img class="myImg" src="img/footer-logo.png" alt="SUFE"></a>
<a class="footer-logo" href="https://www.shufe.edu.cn/"><img class="myImg" src="./img/footer-logo.png" alt="SUFE"></a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="col-md-4" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);text-align:center;height: 120px;">
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12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions charts'.html
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<meta name="description" content="疫情预测-疫情地图-2019-nCov">
<meta name="keywords" content="2020 wuhan Novel coronavirus, 武汉肺炎, geo, charts, 地图,疫情,疫情可视化,疫情预测, 2019-nCov, free,2019-nCoV, coronavirus, novel, visualization, map, china, wuhan, heatmap,wh">
<meta name="author" content="Tony Xia">
<link rel="icon" href="img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/head.css">
<link rel="icon" href="./img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/head.css">
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/common.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui-theme.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/lib/chosen/chosen.min.css" />
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/echarts/4.4.0-rc.1/echarts.min.js"></script>
<script src="incubator-echarts-4.6.0/map/js/china.js"></script>
<script src="./incubator-echarts-4.6.0/map/js/china.js"></script>
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/jquery/1.11.3/jquery.min.js"></script>
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-BVYiiSIFeK1dGmJRAkycuHAHRg32OmUcww7on3RYdg4Va+PmSTsz/K68vbdEjh4u" crossorigin="anonymous">
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/js/bootstrap.min.js" integrity="sha384-Tc5IQib027qvyjSMfHjOMaLkfuWVxZxUPnCJA7l2mCWNIpG9mGCD8wGNIcPD7Txa" crossorigin="anonymous"></script>
<script src="js/charts_chart3.js"></script>
<script src="js/charts_chart4.js"></script>
<script src="js/charts_chart5.js"></script>
<script src="./js/charts_chart3.js"></script>
<script src="./js/charts_chart4.js"></script>
<script src="./js/charts_chart5.js"></script>

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