-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
Commit
This commit does not belong to any branch on this repository, and may belong to a fork outside of the repository.
- Loading branch information
Showing
12 changed files
with
113 additions
and
113 deletions.
There are no files selected for viewing
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
---|---|---|
|
@@ -12,16 +12,16 @@ | |
<meta name="description" content="疫情预测-疫情地图-2019-nCov"> | ||
<meta name="keywords" content="2020 wuhan Novel coronavirus, 武汉肺炎, geo, charts, 地图,疫情,疫情可视化,疫情预测, 2019-nCov, free,2019-nCoV, coronavirus, novel, visualization, map, china, wuhan, heatmap,wh"> | ||
<meta name="author" content="Tony Xia"> | ||
<link rel="icon" href="img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/head.css"> | ||
<link rel="icon" href="./img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/head.css"> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui-theme.css" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui.css" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/lib/chosen/chosen.min.css" /> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/echarts/4.4.0-rc.1/echarts.min.js"></script> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/jquery/1.11.3/jquery.min.js"></script> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-BVYiiSIFeK1dGmJRAkycuHAHRg32OmUcww7on3RYdg4Va+PmSTsz/K68vbdEjh4u" crossorigin="anonymous"> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/js/bootstrap.min.js" integrity="sha384-Tc5IQib027qvyjSMfHjOMaLkfuWVxZxUPnCJA7l2mCWNIpG9mGCD8wGNIcPD7Txa" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> | ||
<script src="js/backtotop.js"></script> | ||
<script src="./js/backtotop.js"></script> | ||
<style> | ||
ul.nav-tabs { | ||
margin-top: 20px; | ||
|
@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ | |
|
||
<header> | ||
<div style="width: 100%; height: 105px"> | ||
<img src="img/logo.png" alt="sufe sime" class="top"> | ||
<img src="./img/logo.png" alt="sufe sime" class="top"> | ||
<div id="top_right" class="visible-md visible-lg"> | ||
<p id='hide'>武汉加油 <span id="red">中国</span>加油</p> | ||
</div> | ||
|
@@ -225,7 +225,7 @@ <h4>申明</h4> | |
<div id="fixedTools" class="totop position-fixed d-none d-xl-flex" style="top: 250px"> | ||
<div class="btn btn-light" style="width: 165px;"> | ||
<p style="text-align: center;">模型预测图</p> | ||
<img src="img/gif_model1.gif" alt="模拟结果gif" /> | ||
<img src="./img/gif_model1.gif" alt="模拟结果gif" /> | ||
<p style="text-align: center;font-size:8px;">(点击返回顶部)</p> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
|
@@ -247,7 +247,7 @@ <h4>1、传统的SEIR模型</h4> | |
</ol> | ||
<br> | ||
<p>其中,这几类人群之间的相互转换可以由如下的图片表示:</p> | ||
<img src="img/cal0.png" alt="seir" width="350px" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal0.png" alt="seir" width="350px" /> | ||
<br> | ||
<br> | ||
<p>以微分方程组的形式表示则为</p> | ||
|
@@ -260,19 +260,19 @@ <h4>1、传统的SEIR模型</h4> | |
<br> | ||
</div> | ||
<div class="col-md-4 col-sm-12"> | ||
<img src="img/cal1.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="img/cal2.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal1.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal2.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
<p>传统的SEIR模型通过求解如上微分方程组,即可模拟传染病在一个区域内的传播。</p> | ||
<br id="section-2"> | ||
<hr/> | ||
<h4>2、动态SEIR预测模型介绍</h4> | ||
<p>在传统的SEIR模型中,传染率β为固定不变的常数,但是在疫情的具体情况中,随着政府管控的加强,民众防范意识提升,医疗技术的进一步发展,在实际情况下,传染率β应该随着时间逐步下降,所以,我们进一步假设SEIR模型中,β服从Hill decay function ,即β(t)=1/(1+(k/L)^k),方程参数中的L表示传染率减半的时间,hill函数的图像由下图所示:</p> | ||
<img src="img/cal3.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal3.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<br> | ||
<p>同时,考虑到在本次疫情中,存在轻症、重症等较为复杂的情况,为了更好的预测模型中的死亡人数,我们将原来SEIR模型中的R状态,拆分为了4个状态,分别是Recovered(治愈),Hospitalized(住院),Critical(重症),Death(死亡),这样,我们的新模型可以用如下微分方程组描述:</p> | ||
<img src="img/cal4.png" alt="seir" style="height: 500px;" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal4.png" alt="seir" style="height: 500px;" /> | ||
<p>模型中各参数的含义如下:</p> | ||
<ul> | ||
<li>R_t=在t时刻的基本再生数,等于βt*平均感染期;</li> | ||
|
@@ -286,7 +286,7 @@ <h4>2、动态SEIR预测模型介绍</h4> | |
</ul> | ||
<p>以上假设参照了<a href="https://www.kaggle.com/covid-19-contributions" target="_Blank">www.kaggle.com/covid-19-contributions</a></p> | ||
<p>为达到预测的目的,我们将模型与实际数据进行拟合,为求解最优的模型参数,我们求解如下误差目标函数的最小值:</p> | ||
<img src="img/cal4.5.png" alt="seir" style="height: 180px;" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal4.5.png" alt="seir" style="height: 180px;" /> | ||
<p>其中目标函数中的I_cum 代表实际累积患病人数,I_cumpre代表使用模型预测的累积患病人数,D_cum 代表实际累积死亡人数,D_cumpre代表使用模型预测的累积死亡人数,通过拟合模型求解最优参数,我们再使用最优模型对后来传染病传播情况进行预测。</p> | ||
<br id="section-3"> | ||
<hr/> | ||
|
@@ -306,11 +306,11 @@ <h5>国内预测:</h5> | |
<p>我们将2月13日到2月19日的数据作为模型的输入,预测2月20到2月23日的实际患病人数,并与实际情况对比,结果如下:</p> | ||
<div class="container" style="width: 100%;"> | ||
<div class="col-md-6 col-sm-12"> | ||
<img src="img/cal5.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal5.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<p style="text-align: center;">湖北</p> | ||
</div> | ||
<div class="col-md-6 col-sm-12"> | ||
<img src="img/cal6.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal6.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<p style="text-align: center;">非湖北</p> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
|
@@ -319,7 +319,7 @@ <h5>国内预测:</h5> | |
<p>由于疑似病例的报告并不精确到省级,对处于潜伏期的人数难以估计,且湖北省的治愈率与死亡率均比较特殊,所以对湖北省的预测偏差可能较大。</p> | ||
<br> | ||
<h5>美国预测:</h5> | ||
<img src="img/cal6.5.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal6.5.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<p>可以看出,对于之前的数据,模型的拟合效果比较好,但是随着时间的推移,由于实际情况可能会发生进一步的变化,而模型对假设的依赖较大,这些假设与实际上的差异可能导致模型的误差会不断增大。</p> | ||
<p>同时,考虑到应对措施的进步,可以判断在长期内实际患病人数应该要低于模型预测值。</p> | ||
<p>由于对于美国,各州的防疫政策不同,故对美国整体进行模型估计的误差可能较大。</p> | ||
|
@@ -338,13 +338,13 @@ <h4>实时R0监测模型</h4> | |
<h4>实时R0监控算法</h4> | ||
<br> | ||
<p>我们认为,t时刻新增的感染人数k与R_t相关,同时R_t也和之前的所有R_t-m相关,所以,我们采用贝叶斯方程来进行R_t的计算:</p> | ||
<img src="img/cal13.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal13.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<p>其中,根据相关的传染病相关论文研究,我们假设:</p> | ||
<img src="img/cal14.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal14.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<br> | ||
<img src="img/cal15.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal15.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<p>根据以上公式,我们可以计算出所有天数R_t的概率分布,前2天的计算公式示例如下:</p> | ||
<img src="img/cal16.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<img src="./img/cal16.png" alt="seir" /> | ||
<p>在求得所有R_t的概率分布之后,我们使用极大似然估计估计出每天的R_t值<br> 以美国全国的情况为例,R_t的变化情况如下: | ||
</p> | ||
<div id="usa-chart" style="width: 100%; height: 500px;"></div> | ||
|
@@ -447,13 +447,13 @@ <h4>实时R0监控算法</h4> | |
<div class="col-md-12" style="height: 15px;"></div> | ||
<div> | ||
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像1.jpg" alt="t.k.t"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像1.jpg" alt="t.k.t"> | ||
</div> | ||
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像2.jpg" alt="lmh"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像2.jpg" alt="lmh"> | ||
</div> | ||
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像3.jpg" alt="cc"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像3.jpg" alt="cc"> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
|
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
---|---|---|
|
@@ -12,13 +12,13 @@ | |
<meta name="description" content="疫情预测-疫情地图-2019-nCov"> | ||
<meta name="keywords" content="2020 wuhan Novel coronavirus, 武汉肺炎, geo, charts, 地图,疫情,疫情可视化,疫情预测, 2019-nCov, free,2019-nCoV, coronavirus, novel, visualization, map, china, wuhan, heatmap,wh"> | ||
<meta name="author" content="Tony Xia"> | ||
<link rel="icon" href="img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/head.css"> | ||
<link rel="icon" href="./img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/head.css"> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui-theme.css" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui.css" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/lib/chosen/chosen.min.css" /> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/echarts/4.4.0-rc.1/echarts.min.js"></script> | ||
<script src="incubator-echarts-4.6.0/map/js/china.js"></script> | ||
<script src="./incubator-echarts-4.6.0/map/js/china.js"></script> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/jquery/1.11.3/jquery.min.js"></script> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-BVYiiSIFeK1dGmJRAkycuHAHRg32OmUcww7on3RYdg4Va+PmSTsz/K68vbdEjh4u" crossorigin="anonymous"> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/js/bootstrap.min.js" integrity="sha384-Tc5IQib027qvyjSMfHjOMaLkfuWVxZxUPnCJA7l2mCWNIpG9mGCD8wGNIcPD7Txa" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> | ||
|
@@ -177,36 +177,36 @@ <h4>申明</h4> | |
|
||
<div id="chartsBlock" class="col-md-7 col-sm-12" style="top: 20px;"> | ||
<div id="tab_1"> | ||
<iframe src="charts'.html" height=690px width=100% frameborder="0" scrolling="0"></iframe> | ||
<iframe src="./charts'.html" height=690px width=100% frameborder="0" scrolling="0"></iframe> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
</main> | ||
|
||
<div style="height: 25px;"></div> | ||
|
||
<script src="js/chart_firstblock_map.js"></script> | ||
<script src="js/chart_firstblock_pies.js"></script> | ||
<script src="./js/chart_firstblock_map.js"></script> | ||
<script src="./js/chart_firstblock_pies.js"></script> | ||
|
||
<footer style="background-color: #1e1e1e10;"> | ||
<div class="container"> | ||
<div class="col-md-4" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);text-align:center;height: 120px;"> | ||
<div class="col-md-12" style="height: 15px;"></div> | ||
<div> | ||
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像1.jpg" alt="t.k.t"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像1.jpg" alt="t.k.t"> | ||
</div> | ||
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像2.jpg" alt="lmh"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像2.jpg" alt="lmh"> | ||
</div> | ||
<div class="col-xs-4" style="text-align:center;"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="img/头像3.jpg" alt="cc"> | ||
<img class="myImg2" src="./img/头像3.jpg" alt="cc"> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
<div class="col-md-4 visible-md visible-lg" style="text-align:center;height: 120px;line-height: 100px;"> | ||
<div style="border-top:none; border-left:1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); border-right:1px solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.1); "> | ||
<a class="footer-logo" href="https://www.shufe.edu.cn/"><img class="myImg" src="img/footer-logo.png" alt="SUFE"></a> | ||
<a class="footer-logo" href="https://www.shufe.edu.cn/"><img class="myImg" src="./img/footer-logo.png" alt="SUFE"></a> | ||
</div> | ||
</div> | ||
<div class="col-md-4" style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.5);text-align:center;height: 120px;"> | ||
|
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
---|---|---|
|
@@ -12,20 +12,20 @@ | |
<meta name="description" content="疫情预测-疫情地图-2019-nCov"> | ||
<meta name="keywords" content="2020 wuhan Novel coronavirus, 武汉肺炎, geo, charts, 地图,疫情,疫情可视化,疫情预测, 2019-nCov, free,2019-nCoV, coronavirus, novel, visualization, map, china, wuhan, heatmap,wh"> | ||
<meta name="author" content="Tony Xia"> | ||
<link rel="icon" href="img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/head.css"> | ||
<link rel="icon" href="./img/sufe.ico" type="images/x-ico" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/head.css"> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/common.css" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui-theme.css" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/css/zui.css" /> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./js/zui/lib/chosen/chosen.min.css" /> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/echarts/4.4.0-rc.1/echarts.min.js"></script> | ||
<script src="incubator-echarts-4.6.0/map/js/china.js"></script> | ||
<script src="./incubator-echarts-4.6.0/map/js/china.js"></script> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.bootcss.com/jquery/1.11.3/jquery.min.js"></script> | ||
<link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/css/bootstrap.min.css" integrity="sha384-BVYiiSIFeK1dGmJRAkycuHAHRg32OmUcww7on3RYdg4Va+PmSTsz/K68vbdEjh4u" crossorigin="anonymous"> | ||
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/[email protected]/dist/js/bootstrap.min.js" integrity="sha384-Tc5IQib027qvyjSMfHjOMaLkfuWVxZxUPnCJA7l2mCWNIpG9mGCD8wGNIcPD7Txa" crossorigin="anonymous"></script> | ||
<script src="js/charts_chart3.js"></script> | ||
<script src="js/charts_chart4.js"></script> | ||
<script src="js/charts_chart5.js"></script> | ||
<script src="./js/charts_chart3.js"></script> | ||
<script src="./js/charts_chart4.js"></script> | ||
<script src="./js/charts_chart5.js"></script> | ||
|
||
</head> | ||
|
||
|
Oops, something went wrong.