Merge pull request remindmodel#1831 from pweigmann/CCS_update

CCS bounds update

config/default.cfg

@@ -26,8 +26,9 @@ cfg$regionmapping <- "config/regionmappingH12.csv"
 
 ### Additional (optional) region mapping, so that those validation data can be loaded that contain the corresponding additional regions.
 cfg$extramappings_historic <- ""
+
 #### Current input data revision (<mainrevision>.<subrevision>) ####
-cfg$inputRevision <- "6.86"
+cfg$inputRevision <- "6.92"
 
 #### Current CES parameter and GDX revision (commit hash) ####
 cfg$CESandGDXversion <- "d4c62a8f11e8a6827310519df09c98eb425a4070"

core/bounds.gms

@@ -404,22 +404,26 @@ $endif
 
 
 *** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-*AM* Lower limit for 2020-2030 is capacities of all projects that are operational (2020-2030) and under construction (2025-2030) from project data base
-*AM* Upper limit for 2025 and 2030 additionally includes 40% (default, or changed by c_fracRealfromAnnouncedCCScap2030) announced/planned projects from project data base
-*AM* In nash-mode regions cannot easily share ressources, therefore CCS potentials are redistributed in Europe: 
+*AM* Lower limit for 2020-2030 is capacities of all projects that are operational (2020-2030) from project data base
+*AM* Upper limit for 2025 and 2030 additionally includes all projects under construction and 30% 
+*AM* (default, or changed by c_fracRealfromAnnouncedCCScap2030) of announced/planned projects from project data base
+*AM* See also corresponding code in input validation data preparation in mrremind/R/calcProjectPipeline.R.
+*AM* In nash-mode regions cannot easily share ressources, therefore CCS potentials are redistributed in Europe in data preprocessing in mrremind:
 *AM* Potential of EU27 regions is pooled and redistributed according to GDP (Only upper limit for 2030)
 *AM* Norway and UK announced to store CO2 for EU27 countries. So 50% of Norway and UK potential in 2030 is attributed to EU27-Pool
 *LP* if c_ccsinjecratescen=0 --> no CCS at all and vm_co2CCS is fixed to 0 before, therefore the upper bound is only set if there should be CCS!
 *** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 if ( (c_ccsinjecratescen gt 0) AND (NOT cm_emiscen eq 1),
-  vm_co2CCS.lo(t,regi,"cco2","ico2","ccsinje","1")$(t.val le 2030) = p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"low")$(t.val le 2030) * s_MtCO2_2_GtC;
-  vm_co2CCS.up(t,regi,"cco2","ico2","ccsinje","1")$(t.val le 2030) = (p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"low")$(t.val le 2030) + (p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"up")$(t.val le 2030) - p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"low")$(t.val le 2030)) * c_fracRealfromAnnouncedCCScap2030) * s_MtCO2_2_GtC;
+  vm_co2CCS.lo(t,regi,"cco2","ico2","ccsinje","1")$(t.val le 2030) = p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"operational")$(t.val le 2030) * s_MtCO2_2_GtC;
+  vm_co2CCS.up(t,regi,"cco2","ico2","ccsinje","1")$(t.val le 2030) = (p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"operational")$(t.val le 2030) + p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"construction")$(t.val le 2030) + p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"planned")$(t.val le 2030) * c_fracRealfromAnnouncedCCScap2030) * s_MtCO2_2_GtC;
 );
 
+*AM* Fix capacities of technologies with carbon capture to zero if there are no CCS projects in the pipeline in that region
+*AM* This is only reasonable, as long as we also don't expect any CCU projects in the early years.
 loop(regi,
   loop(t$(t.val le 2030),
-    if( ( p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"up") eq 0),
+    if( ((p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"operational") + p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"construction") + p_boundCapCCS(t,regi,"planned")) eq 0),
       vm_cap.fx(t,regi,teCCS,rlf) = 0;
     );
   );

core/datainput.gms

@@ -892,7 +892,7 @@ if(pm_NuclearConstraint("2020",regi,"tnrs")<0,
 );
 
 *** read in data on CCS capacities and announced projects used as upper and lower bound on vm_co2CCS in 2025 and 2030
-parameter p_boundCapCCS(ttot,all_regi,bounds)        "installed and planned capacity of CCS"
+parameter p_boundCapCCS(ttot,all_regi,project_status)        "installed and planned capacity of CCS"
 /
 $ondelim
 $include "./core/input/p_boundCapCCS.cs4r"

core/sets.gms

@@ -1039,6 +1039,12 @@ RCP_regions_world(RCP_regions_world_bunkers) "five RCP regions plus total (world
 ***-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Sets
   counter   "helper set to facilitate looping in defined order"   / 1 * 20 /
+  project_status "project status read in from input data to define upper and lower near-term capacitiy bounds for CCS"
+  /
+    "operational",
+    "construction",
+    "planned"
+  /
   NDC_version "NDC data version for NDC realizations of 40_techpol and 45_carbonprice"
   /
     2018_cond, 2018_uncond,
@@ -1047,7 +1053,6 @@ Sets
     2023_cond, 2023_uncond,
     2024_cond, 2024_uncond
   /
-  bounds "helper set to define upper and lower bounds read in from input data" /low, up/
 ;
 
 ***-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

main.gms

@@ -1142,9 +1142,9 @@ parameter
 parameter
   c_fracRealfromAnnouncedCCScap2030         "switch to adjust the share of realised CCS capacities from total announced/planned projects from database in 2030"
 ;
-  c_fracRealfromAnnouncedCCScap2030 = 0.4; !! def = 0.4
+  c_fracRealfromAnnouncedCCScap2030 = 0.3; !! def = 0.3
 *' This switch changes the assumption about the share of timely realised capacities from sum of announced/planned in 2030 from the IEA CCS data base
-*' Default assumption is that only 40% of announced or planned capacities will be realised, either due to discontinuation or delay
+*' Default assumption is that only 30% of announced or planned capacities will be realised, either due to discontinuation or delay
 
 parameter
   cm_startIter_EDGET          "starting iteration of EDGE-T"