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Added Funding Risk
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robmoffat committed Nov 29, 2024
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48 changes: 44 additions & 4 deletions docs/risks/Dependency-Risks/Scarcity-Risks/Funding-Risk.md
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<RiskIntro fm={frontMatter} />

![Funding Risk](/img/generated/risks/scarcity/funding-risk.svg)
Funding risk is the chance that a person or firm won’t be get access to the money it needs when it needs it. This could lead to cash flow problems or trouble paying its bills.

On a lot of software projects you are "handed down" deadlines from above and told to deliver by a certain date or face the consequences. <!-- tweet-end --> But sometimes you're given a budget instead, which really just adds another layer of abstraction to the [Schedule Risk](/tags/Schedule-Risk). That is, do I have enough funds to cover the team for as long as I need them?
## Worked Example

![Funding Risk](/img/generated/risks/posters/funding-risk.svg)

On a lot of software projects you are "handed down" deadlines from above and told to deliver by a certain date or face the consequences. But sometimes you're given a budget instead, which really just adds another layer of abstraction to the [Schedule Risk](/tags/Schedule-Risk). That is, do I have enough funds to cover the team for as long as I need them?

This grants you some leeway as now you have two variables to play with: the _size_ of the team, and _how long_ you can run it for. The larger the team, the shorter the time you can afford to pay for it.

In startup circles, this "amount of time you can afford it" is called the ["Runway"](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/runway): you have to get the product to "take-off" (become profitable) before the runway ends.
In startup circles, this "amount of time you can afford it" is called the ["Runway"](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/runway): you have to get the product to "take-off" (become profitable) before the runway ends.

In the above diagram, your startup is constrained in this way and wants to maximise its available runway. Startups often spend a lot of time courting investors in order to get funding and mitigate this type of [Funding Risk](/tags/Funding-Risk). The problem with this is that when the founders' focus changes to raising funds, they can no longer be focused on _building the right product_ (i.e. [Feature Fit Risk](tags/Feature-Fit-Risk)) building it quickly ([Schedule Risk](/tags/Schedule-Risk)) and doing so before the market for the product changes ([Market Risk](/tags/Market-Risk)).

## Example Threats

### 1. Threat From the Funder

**Threat**: The entity supplying the funds changes their mind, creating a funding gap.

**Threat**: The entity supplying the funds can't afford to continue funding, perhaps due to liquidity issues or bankruptcy.

**See** [Credit Risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_risk)

### 2. Threats From The Capital Markets

**Threat**: The market changes in some way (perhaps interest rates, a stock crash, exchange rates) which affect the source of funding.

**See** [Market Risk](tags/Market-Risk)

### 3. Threats From Demand

**Threat**: The reason for giving the funding changes - perhaps the sector is less attractive to investors or there is new, stiff competition.

### 4. Global Issues

**Threat**: Regulatory, legal or geo-political changes make it impossible for funding to continue.

:::tip Anecdote Corner

Boo.com was launched in 1999 as an online fashion brand, hoping to revolutionise the experience of online, interactive shopping. It arrived in a blaze of glory, spending $135 million dollars on marketing - made available to it because at the time the dot-com bubble was in full swing.

Although there were both technology issues and operational problems, the overall approach of the company had been to spend lavishly from their enormous initial funding budget: getting a global fashion brand to market quickly (in order to capture the emerging online fashion sales market) was seen to be the biggest risk.

However, by April of 2000, the dot.com bubble had popped, leaving investors questioning why they had invested so much into boo.com in the first place and refusing to invest further.

On May 18th 2000, boo.com filed for bankruptcy, unable to pay its marketing, wage and technology bills, well before the site was profitable.

Startups often spend a lot of time courting investors in order to get funding and mitigate this type of [Schedule Risk](/tags/Schedule-Risk).<!-- tweet-end --> But, as shown in the diagram above, this activity usually comes at the expense of [Feature Risk](/tags/Feature-Risk), as usually the same people are diverted into raise funds instead of building the project itself.
:::
35 changes: 35 additions & 0 deletions src/images/generated/risks/posters/funding-risk.adl
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<diagram
xslt:template="/public/templates/risk-first/risk-first-template.xsl"
xmlns="http://www.kite9.org/schema/adl"
xmlns:xslt="http://www.kite9.org/schema/xslt" id="dia"
style="--kite9-min-width: 900pt; ">
<container bordered="true"
id="c"
style="--kite9-layout: right; --kite9-horizontal-align: center; --kite9-sizing: minimize; ">
<mitigated>
<risk class="funding" style="--kite9-vertical-align: top; "/>
</mitigated>
<label id="id_16">
Your startup has a limited runway and looks like
it might not achieve profitability with the
funds it has available.
<symbols/>
</label>
</container>
<group style="--kite9-layout: down; --kite9-horizontal-align: left; ">
<action>Raise Funds</action>
</group>
<container bordered="true"
id="c-kg"
style="--kite9-layout: right; --kite9-horizontal-align: center; --kite9-sizing: minimize; ">
<risk class="schedule"/>
<risk class="market"/>
<risk class="feature-fit"/>
<label id="id_16-km">
But raising funds diverts attention away
from the important business of getting the
right product to market on time.
<symbols/>
</label>
</container>
</diagram>
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