For the original python code, please click here to visit my Kaggle notebook, or go to the above m file. All graphs and code were developed by myself.
Data Source
Hannah Ritchie (2014) - "Energy". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/energy' [Online Resource]
It is readily apparent that the world needs to rapidly transition to a zero-carbon future in the coming decades, as an increase in droughts and natural disasters has already led to famines and will lead to ever increasing mass migrations due to regional conflicts over ever scarce food and water resources. World leaders have been pushing for investments in renewable energy, energy storage, green building technologies, along with a host of other methods to reduce energy consumption. Below is a simplified version of the transition from the current state of the world's energy generation and consumption to a carbon neutral future.
In order to realize a carbon neutral future, all energy generation and consumption needs to be connected in the grid. This means that all energy production will need to remove fossil fuels, such as coal, gas, and oil, and replace them with renewable energy sources and nuclear power. Energy consumption will also have to be 100% electrified. This means that all combustion vehicles, including all cars, trucks, trains, etc., will need to consume electricity. All natural gas and coal furnaces for residential water heating will need to be replaced with electric boilers. Another alternative to replacing the non-connected grid consumption devices will be to use hydrogen fuel cell technology, but it appears electricity and batteries will be leading the switch from fossil fuels to carbonless technologies.
The world's electricity situation, as shown in the upper right chart, shows no significant increase in energy consumption from renewable energy sources over the past 20-30 years. Natural gas production has increased in the past 10 years, coinciding with a decrease in nuclear energy, notably in countries like Japan and Germany. Renewable energy has offset the decreases in nuclear energy, and unsurprisingly in the past 10 years, appears to be setting a trend of slow but steady trend of an increase in renewable energy. It is expected that in the next decade, a significant portion of electric vehicles will be electric, thus requiring a demand for more electricity production. A combination of hydro, nuclear, as well as wind, solar, and energy storage to smooth out the variations in electricity supply will be needed.
In good news for the green energy movement, the major economies of China, Europe, and the US have all seen an increase in renewables in the past decade, particularly Europe and China, and to a lesser extent, the US. China has committed to carbon neutrality by 2060, and have seen the largest green energy investment commitment by any country in history. One of the main motivations for China is to improve the air and water quality for its citizens, where over 60% of its electricity comes from coal. One caveat that will temporarily slow down the green energy transition for China is the fact that the burning of natural gas produces next to no particulate matter, which is a significant contributor to poor air quality and lung cancer. Transitioning from coal to natural gas power plants will result in a drastic improvement for a country reeling from air quality issues ever since the country opened its borders to the rest of the world and began the industrialization process. Despite a reduction in nuclear power production, Europe and the US have seen a strong increase in wind power.
The charts above show on the left, the world's leaders in renewable energy, such as Iceland, Sweden, and Norway, and the top energy consumers on the right. Generally, the leading renewable energy countries get their electricity primarily from hydroelectric dams (ex. Iceland, Norway, and Brazil), with some obtaining energy from nuclear (ex. Sweden, Switzerland, and France), and a spattering of other renewables such as wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels. When considering the countries that receive over 90% of their electricity from renewables, almost all of them receive the majority of electricity from hydroelectricity. this list includes several third world countries, such as Ethiopia, Nepal, and Uruguay. For a world moving towards 100% electrification of energy, hydroelectricity could become a significant player in this carbon neutral future.
Iceland is the leading country for renewable energy, with approximately 80% of its energy coming from geothermal and hydroelectric dams. The island nation relies on geothermal power to generate heating for buildings and potable water, replacing the need for natural gas to heat homes and water, which would be a rather expensive endeavor for a country with little availability in fossil fuel resources. Despite Iceland's easy access to geothermal power, it is possible for countries to generate their electricity from geothermal power. The United States for example could receive nearly all of its electricity from geothermal energy.