elo-zs

This project includes an Elo rating engine and a race result simulator, which support analysis tools for analysis of races and racer performances in the ZakStunts Stunts competition. While there is a fair amount of ZakStunts-specific code in the package, the cores of the Elo engine and simulator are largely competition-agnostic, and could conceivably be factored out into separate libraries.

The code here is still very much a work in progress. For the moment, the most effective way to use it is interactively by loading the Zak module in GHCi. For ling simulation runs, though, compiling with optimisations is highly recommended; the Main module illustrates how to put the simulator to work. cabal build, cabal repl and cabal run should work with no complications for Cabal 3+. A Cabal freeze file (assuming GHC 8.8.3 for now) is provided to cover for the package organisation details that still have to be ironed out.

Possible entry points for browsing the code:

• Engine: The Elo engine.

• Analysis.Simulation: The simulation engine.

• Analysis.PerfModel.Orbital: A simple gamma distribution-based performance model the simulation engine depends upon.

• Analysis: The key parts of the result analysis pipelines. (In contrast, the Zak module is mostly about presentation and providing a REPL-friendly interface.)

A number of decisions in the implementation of the Elo engine were informed by Glickman, Mark E., A Comprehensive Guide to Chess Ratings (1995), a very readable introduction to the problem space. It should be noted that using Elo ratings to rank racers is a very simple approach with clear limitations, chiefly the absence of explicit modeling of rating uncertainties and the fact that the Elo system is designed for one-versus-one matches rather than free-for-all races (for prior art on such matters, see for instance Glickman's other works on the topic, including the Glicko system, as well as Microsoft's TrueSkill). In this code base, such limitations are, to an extent, addressed by various local measures, some of them principled, and some of a more ad hoc nature.

The docs/stuntshu-announcement.txt file reproduces the forum post through which this project was first presented to the Stunts community. It documents the business domain design decisions from a sporting perspective.

Thanks to the worldwide Stunts community, whose élan runs through this codebase.