OverICA

Experimental!!!

the R package OverICA performs overcomplete indepedent component analysis (ICA), meaning it estimates the relation between latent variables andobserved variables in the data, allowing there to be more latent then observed variables. We observe p variabes in matrix $y_{n,p}$, we estimate the matrix $A_{p,k}$ that contains the effects of k (non-gaussian) latent variables in $x_{n,k}$ on the observed variables. there are potentially more variables k then p.

$$y = Ax^t$$

this code estimates A by levraging the differences betweee the observed generalized covariance matrices and generalized means in the data and the model implied generalized covariance matrices and generalized means. This is based on ideas developed by Podosinnikova et al. (2019).

We assume:

1. variables $x_i$ are non-gaussian (skewed, kurtotic sparse etc)
2. variables $x_i$ are uncorrelated
3. a single layer neural network applied to a gaussian variable can approximate the (moments of) the uncorrelated latent variables

Unlike Podosinnikova et al. I use backpropagation to estimate the parameters. Based on ideas in Ding et al. (2019) I define a generative neural network for each of the k latent variables (a multi-layer perceptron), and a matrix A that mixed these variables into p observed pseudo variables. I train the model to approzimate the the generalized covariacne matrices of the obersed data. Unlike Deng et al. I explicitly penalize the loss to ensure the latent variables remain uncorrelated.

the key gain over other overcomplete ICA techniques is that we only use 2nd order statistics, no skewness and kurtosis related math needed! Which is great because higher order moments like skewness and kurtosis, or higher order cumulants usually means high dimensional matrices and slow opimization.

Warning:

Inferences is aproximate! Here is an example of two runs estimating 8 latent variables given 5 observed variables, same data goes into the model twice. Simply because we sample a random matrix of 96*5 points at which to evaluate the model ("t-values" see below) and the t-values in one of these runs were likely less the ideal points of the multiviate density to evalue the modle one run neatly recapitulates the ground truth, the other is noisier.

Good run	Bad run

In this case the better solution had a lower loss, which obviously is a good indicator, but this isnt always the case as the loss can depend on thye speciific set of t-values that was sampled and we can overfit. In an emperical application you'd never know which is closer to the truth and without further exploration it would be hard to favor one over the other. It's essential to try a whole host of optimizer settings to figure out which gives you lower loss/better convergence. Once you are satisfied with the optimizer settings you can try a few independent runs and compare results.

I have implemented a num_runs argument in overica() which lets you run the same model a number of times and keeps all runs, you can then use the best run (in terms of loss) or compute the median result across runs.

Installation

Before proceeding, ensure that you have the necessary dependencies installed. You can install the OverICA package from your local directory or repository once it's built. Additionally, install the required packages if you haven't already:

# Install necessary packages
install.packages(c("torch", "clue", "MASS", "devtools"))

# Install OverICA package (replace 'path/to/package' with your actual path)
devtools::install_github("MichelNivard/OverICA")
library(OverICA)

Generic usage

Here is a generic call to the overica() function the data in a n by p matrix (n observations and p variables), k is the number of components, pick k below $\frac{p^2}{4}$.

be aware this function fits a custom neural network (see scientific background below) undertraining and relying on suboptimal or generic setings will give you bad results, but no warnings! You will always extract some results but you won't know of they are bad!

# Call the estimation function
result <- overica(
  data = data,
  k = k,
  n_batch = 4096,
  num_t_vals = 12,
  tbound = 0.2,
  lambda = 0,
  sigma = 3,
  hidden_size = 10,
  use_adam = TRUE,
  use_lbfgs = FALSE,
  adam_epochs = 8000,
  adam_lr = 0.1,
  lbfgs_epochs = 45,
  lr_decay = 0.999
)

Scientific Background:

In statistical analysis and parameter estimation, particularly within the OverICA package, it's crucial to comprehend the relationship between the covariance matrix and the Cumulant Generating Function (CGF). This understanding underpins accurate parameter estimation and model fitting.

What are Cumulants?

Cumulants are statistical measures that provide insights into the shape and structure of a probability distribution. Unlike moments (e.g., mean, variance), cumulants have properties that make them particularly useful for analyzing dependencies and higher-order interactions.

• First Cumulant ($\kappa_1$): Mean ($\mu$)
• Second Cumulant ($\kappa_2$): Variance ($\sigma^2$) for univariate distributions; Covariance ($\Sigma$) for multivariate distributions
• Higher-Order Cumulants: Related to skewness, kurtosis, etc.

Cumulant Generating Function (CGF)

The Cumulant Generating Function (CGF) encapsulates all cumulants of a random variable or vector. For a random vector $\mathbf{X} = (X_1, X_2, \ldots, X_p)^T$, the CGF is defined as:

$$ K_{\mathbf{X}}(\mathbf{t}) = \log \mathbb{E}\left[ e^{\mathbf{t}^T \mathbf{X}} \right] $$

where $\mathbf{t} = (t_1, t_2, \ldots, t_p)^T$ is a vector of real numbers.

Key Properties

1. Cumulants via Derivatives: The cumulants are obtained by taking partial derivatives of the CGF evaluated at $\mathbf{t} = \mathbf{0}$.
2. Additivity for Independence: If $\mathbf{X}$ and $\mathbf{Y}$ are independent, then $K_{\mathbf{X} + \mathbf{Y}}(\mathbf{t}) = K_{\mathbf{X}}(\mathbf{t}) + K_{\mathbf{Y}}(\mathbf{t})$.

Covariance Matrix from CGF

The covariance matrix $\Sigma$ captures the pairwise linear relationships between components of $\mathbf{X}$ and is directly derived from the second-order cumulants of the CGF. to do so it makes sense to start froom the CGF of a single random variables.

The cumulant generating function ( $K(t)$ ) of a single random variable ( $X$ ) is:

$$ K(t) = \log \mathbb{E} \left[e^{tX}\right] $$

where ( $\mathbb{E}$ ) denotes the expectation.

The first derivative of the CGF ( $K(t)$ ) is:

$$ K'(t) = \frac{d}{dt} K(t) = \frac{\mathbb{E} \left[X e^{tX}\right]}{\mathbb{E} \left[e^{tX}\right]} = \mathbb{E}_t[X] $$

where ( $\mathbb{E}_t[X]$ ) denotes the expected value of ( X ) under the tilted distribution.

The second derivative of ( $K(t)$ ) is:

$$ K''(t) = \frac{d^2}{dt^2} K(t) = \mathbb{E}_t[X^2] - (\mathbb{E}_t[X])^2 $$

This is equivalent to the variance of ( X ) under the tilted distribution:

$$ K''(t) = \text{Var}_t(X) $$

there is the special case $t = 0$ where $\text{Var}_t(X) = \text{Var}(X)$

At the bottom of the page there is a full derivation of the relation betwene the CGF and the moments, which helped me greatly personally.

Bivariate Cumulant Generating Function (CGF)

The cumulant generating function (CGF) for a pair of random variables (X) and (Y) is an extension of the univariate case. It encapsulates information about the joint moments of (X) and (Y). Here's a breakdown of the bivariate CGF and its derivatives:

For two random variables (X) and (Y), the bivariate cumulant generating function ( $K(t_1, t_2)$ ) is defined as:

$$ K(t_1, t_2) = \log \mathbb{E} \left[ e^{t_1 X + t_2 Y} \right] $$

where: - ( $t_1$ ) and ( $t_2$ ) are real parameters. - ( $\mathbb{E} \left[ e^{t_1 X + t_2 Y} \right]$ ) is the joint moment generating function (MGF) of (X) and (Y).

First Derivatives of ($K(t_1, t_2)$ )

The partial derivatives of ( $K(t_1, t_2)$ ) give the means of (X) and (Y) under the tilted distribution:

$$ \frac{\partial K}{\partial t_1} = \mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[X] \quad \text{and} \quad \frac{\partial K}{\partial t_2} = \mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[Y] $$

where ( $\mathbb{E}_{t_1, t_2}[\cdot]$ ) indicates the expectation under the distribution tilted by ( $e^{t_1 X + t_2 Y}$ ).

Second Derivatives of ( $K(t_1, t_2)$ )

The second-order partial derivatives of ( $K(t_1, t_2)$ ) provide information about the variances and covariance of (X) and (Y) under the tilted distribution:

Variance of ( X ):

$$ \frac{\partial^2 K}{\partial t_1^2} = \mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[X^2] - (\mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[X])^2 = \text{Var}_{t_1, t_2}(X) $$

Variance of ( Y ):

$$ \frac{\partial^2 K}{\partial t_2^2} = \mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[Y^2] - (\mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[Y])^2 = \text{Var}_{t_1, t_2}(Y) $$

Covariance between ( X ) and ( Y ):

$$ \frac{\partial^2 K}{\partial t_1 \partial t_2} = \mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[XY] - \mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[X] \mathbb{E}{t_1, t_2}[Y] = \text{Cov}{t_1, t_2}(X, Y) $$

Thus, the second derivatives of the bivariate CGF ( $K(t_1, t_2)$ ) give the variance of (X), the variance of (Y), and their covariance. These quantities form the variance-covariance matrix of the tilted distribution.

Special Case: ( $t_1 = t_2 = 0$ )

When ( $t_1 = t_2 = 0$ ), the derivatives provide information about the original distribution of ( X ) and ( Y ):

$$ \frac{\partial^2 K}{\partial t_1^2} \bigg|_{t_1=t_2=0} = \text{Var}(X) $$

$$ \frac{\partial^2 K}{\partial t_2^2} \bigg|_{t_1=t_2=0} = \text{Var}(Y) $$

$$ \frac{\partial^2 K}{\partial t_1 \partial t_2} \bigg|_{t_1=t_2=0} = \text{Cov}(X, Y) $$

Thus, the covariance matrix is formed by the second-order partial derivatives of the CGF evaluated at zero:

$$ \Sigma = \begin{pmatrix} \Sigma_{11} & \Sigma_{12} & \dots & \Sigma_{1p} \\ \Sigma_{21} & \Sigma_{22} & \dots & \Sigma_{2p} \\ \vdots & \vdots & \ddots & \vdots \\ \Sigma_{p1} & \Sigma_{p2} & \dots & \Sigma_{pp} \\ \end{pmatrix} $$

Each element $\Sigma_{ij}$ represents the covariance between $X_i$ and $X_j$, derived from the second-order cumulants.

Generalized covariances & means

So we can define the covariances and means in terms of the cumulant generating fuction (EGF) evaluated at $t = 0$. But a key insight in Podosinnikova et al. and previous work, and alluded to above, is that you can evaluate the cumulant generating function at other values of $t$ ($t \neq 0$) to get additional information on the distribution of the data. Evaluating the derivatives at other values gets you moments of tilted versions of the original distribution, which do in fact depende on the shaope of the distributino of the data.

These other evaluations of the CGF can be viewed as generalized covariance matrices:

$\left. \frac{\partial^2 K_{\mathbf{X}}(\mathbf{t})}{\partial t_i \partial t_j}\right|_{\mathbf{t}\neq 0} = \text{GenCov}(X_i, X_j) = \Sigma(t)_{ij}$

Similarly the generalized mean the the first derivative of the CGF evaluated at $t$.

In OverICA we evaluate the emperical CGF of the data at a number of points ($t$), and we train a model to generate data that matches the emperical data at in terms of generalized covariances. The model is structured like an ICA model.

Generative adverserial networks

We base our inference on Ding et al. A generative adverserial network is a neural network that "learns" to approximate a data distribution. In our case the network will learn to mimic the generalized covariances of the actual data. The model is depicted in the diagram below:

We start with 1 sample of random normally distributed data vectors ($z$) and we train a neural nettwork ( a multi layer perceptron) which in our case is just a posh and very flexible generic non-linear transformation. the neural network transforms $z_i$ into $s_i$. Unlike Ding et al., who pioneered this idea, we implement a constraint that ensures the variables $s$ are uncorrelated and standardized (constraining their covariance to an identity matrix). The variabes s are related to the simulated observed variables via the ICA formula:

$$\hat{y} = As$$

And the generalized covariances of the pseudo data $\hat{y}$ are matched to the true data $y$ trough optimisation in torch.

So in our moodel the free parameters are:

1. a neural network for each latent variable
2. the loadings matrix $A$

Under the following constraint:

a. variables $s$ are unorrelated

b. optinally a sparsity constraint on $A$

Mimimizing a function that is a sum of these terms over a number of values $t$(and any penalties):

1. $$||GenCov(\hat{y}) - GenCov(y)||_2$$
2. $$||GenMean(\hat{y}) - GenMean(y)||_2$$

Inferences details

We arent interested in learning specific generalized covariances of the data, so for each itteration of the optimizer we sample fresh values t and evaluate the emperical and model implied generalized covriances. This ensures we dont accidentally overfit to a specific poorly estimated set of emperical generalized covariances of the data.

1. Sample

• Sample new values $t$
• Compute the generalized covariances for the data at $t$

4. Forward Pass (Prediction):

• Input Data: Feed the input data into the model.
• Compute Output: The model processes the input through its layers to produce an output (prediction) of the generalized covariances at $t$.

4. Loss Computation:

• Calculate Loss: Compute the difference between the predicted outputs and the actual outputs.

5. Backward Pass (Backpropagation):

• Compute Gradients: Calculate how much each parameter (weight and bias) contributes to the loss using calculus (derivatives).
• Gradient Descent: Use these gradients to determine the direction to adjust the parameters to minimize the loss.

6. Parameter Update:

• Adjust Parameters: Update the model's parameters slightly in the direction that reduces the loss.

Other tools:

• [https://github.com/dingchenwei/Likelihood-free_OICA] Likelihood Free Overcomplete ICA
• [https://github.com/gilgarmish/oica] Overcomplete ICA trough convex optimisation

References:

Podosinnikova, A., Perry, A., Wein, A. S., Bach, F., d’Aspremont, A., & Sontag, D. (2019, April). Overcomplete independent component analysis via SDP. In The 22nd international conference on artificial intelligence and statistics (pp. 2583-2592). PMLR.

Ding, C., Gong, M., Zhang, K., & Tao, D. (2019). Likelihood-free overcomplete ICA and applications in causal discovery. Advances in neural information processing systems, 32.

Appendix: A fuller stept by step derivation (which helped me greatly!)

let's go through the derivation step by step to understand how we get to the second derivative of the cumulant generating function $K''(t)$. We want to show:

$$ K''(t) = \frac{d^2}{dt^2} K(t) = \mathbb{E}_t[X^2] - (\mathbb{E}_t[X])^2 $$

Step 1: Definition of the CGF

The cumulant generating function $K(t)$ of a random variable $X$ is defined as:

$$ K(t) = \log \mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right] $$

where $\mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right]$ is the moment generating function (MGF).

Step 2: Differentiate $ K(t) $ to find $ K'(t)

To find $K'(t)$, take the derivative of $K(t)$ with respect to $t$:

$$ K'(t) = \frac{d}{dt} \log \mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right] $$

Using the chain rule, we get:

$$ K'(t) = \frac{1}{\mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right]} \cdot \frac{d}{dt} \mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right] $$

Step 3: Differentiate the MGF

Now, differentiate $\mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right]$ with respect to $t$:

$$ \frac{d}{dt} \mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right] = \mathbb{E} \left[ \frac{d}{dt} e^{tX} \right] $$

Since $\frac{d}{dt} e^{tX} = X e^{tX}$, we get:

$$ \frac{d}{dt} \mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right] = \mathbb{E} \left[ X e^{tX} \right] $$

Step 4: Substitute back into $ K'(t) $

Substitute the derivative back into the expression for $ K'(t) $:

$$ K'(t) = \frac{\mathbb{E} \left[ X e^{tX} \right]}{\mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right]} $$

This is the expected value of $X$ under the tilted distribution defined by $e^{tX}$:

$$ K'(t) = \mathbb{E}_t[X] $$

Step 5: Find the second derivative $ K''(t) $

Now, differentiate $ K'(t) $ to find $ K''(t) $:

$$ K''(t) = \frac{d}{dt} \mathbb{E}_t[X] $$

Step 6: Apply the quotient rule

Use the definition of $\mathbb{E}_t[X] = \frac{\mathbb{E} \left[ X e^{tX} \right]}{\mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right]}$ to differentiate it using the quotient rule:

$$ \frac{d}{dt} \mathbb{E}_t[X] = \frac{\mathbb{E} \left[ X^2 e^{tX} \right] \cdot \mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right] - \mathbb{E} \left[ X e^{tX} \right]^2}{\left( \mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right] \right)^2} $$

Step 7: Simplify the expression

This can be rewritten as:

$$ K''(t) = \mathbb{E}_t[X^2] - (\mathbb{E}_t[X])^2 $$

This is because:

$$ \mathbb{E}_t[X^2] = \frac{\mathbb{E} \left[ X^2 e^{tX} \right]}{\mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right]} $$

and

$$ (\mathbb{E}_t[X])^2 = \left( \frac{\mathbb{E} \left[ X e^{tX} \right]}{\mathbb{E} \left[ e^{tX} \right]} \right)^2 $$

Step 8: Interpretation of $K''(t)$

The expression $K''(t) = \mathbb{E}_t[X^2] - (\mathbb{E}_t[X])^2$ represents the variance of $X$ under the tilted distribution defined by $e^{tX}$:

$$ K''(t) = \text{Var}_t(X) $$

Thus, the second derivative of the cumulant generating function $K(t)$ with respect to $t$ gives the variance of $X$ under the tilted distribution.