paper.bib

@article{geoffroy_2013_two_layer1,
author = {Geoffroy, O. and Saint-Martin, D. and Olivié, D. J. L. and Voldoire, A. and Bellon, G. and Tytéca, S.},
title = {Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution and Parameter Calibration Using {CMIP5} {AOGCM} Experiments},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {26},
number = {6},
pages = {1841-1857},
year = {2013},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00195.1},

URL = {
        https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00195.1

},
eprint = {
        https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00195.1

}
,
    abstract = { AbstractThis is the first part of a series of two articles analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models ({AOGCMs}) within the framework of a two-layer energy-balance model (EBM). In this part, the general analytical solution of the system is given and two idealized climate change scenarios, one with a step forcing and one with a linear forcing, are discussed. These solutions give a didactic description of the contributions from the equilibrium response and of the fast and slow transient responses during a climate transition. Based on these analytical solutions, a simple and physically based procedure to calibrate the two-layer model parameters using an {AOGCM} step-forcing experiment is introduced. Using this procedure, the global thermal properties of 16 {AOGCMs} participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ({CMIP5}) are determined. It is shown that, for a given {AOGCM}, the EBM tuned with only the abrupt 4×CO2 experiment is able to reproduce with a very good accuracy the temperature evolution in both a step-forcing and a linear-forcing experiment. The role of the upper-ocean and deep-ocean heat uptakes in the fast and slow responses is also discussed. One of the main weaknesses of the simple EBM discussed in this part is its ability to represent the evolution of the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance in the transient regime. This issue is addressed in Part II by taking into account the efficacy factor of deep-ocean heat uptake. }
}

@article{geoffroy_2013_two_layer2,
author = {Geoffroy, O. and Saint-Martin, D. and Bellon, G. and Voldoire, A. and Olivié, D. J. L. and Tytéca, S.},
title = {Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part II: Representation of the Efficacy of Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake and Validation for {CMIP5} {AOGCMs}},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {26},
number = {6},
pages = {1859-1876},
year = {2013},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00196.1},

URL = {
        https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00196.1

},
eprint = {
        https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00196.1

}
,
    abstract = { AbstractIn this second part of a series of two articles analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models ({AOGCMs}) within the framework of a two-layer energy-balance model (EBM), the role of the efficacy of deep-ocean heat uptake is investigated. Taking into account such an efficacy factor is shown to amount to representing the effect of deep-ocean heat uptake on the local strength of the radiative feedback in the transient regime. It involves an additional term in the formulation of the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), which explains the nonlinearity between radiative imbalance and the mean surface temperature observed in some {AOGCMs}. An analytical solution of this system is given and this simple linear EBM is calibrated for the set of 16 {AOGCMs} of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ({CMIP5}) studied in Part I. It is shown that both the net radiative fluxes at TOA and the global surface temperature transient response are well represented by the simple EBM over the available period of simulations. Differences between this two-layer EBM and the previous version without an efficacy factor are analyzed and relationships between parameters are discussed. The simple model calibration applied to {AOGCMs} constitutes a new method for estimating their respective equilibrium climate sensitivity and adjusted radiative forcing amplitude from short-term step-forcing simulations and more generally a method to compute their global thermal properties. }
}

@article{held_2010_two_layer,
author = {Held, Isaac M. and Winton, Michael and Takahashi, Ken and Delworth, Thomas and Zeng, Fanrong and Vallis, Geoffrey K.},
title = {Probing the Fast and Slow Components of Global Warming by Returning Abruptly to Preindustrial Forcing},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {23},
number = {9},
pages = {2418-2427},
year = {2010},
doi = {10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1},

URL = {
        https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1

},
eprint = {
        https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1

}
,
    abstract = { Abstract The fast and slow components of global warming in a comprehensive climate model are isolated by examining the response to an instantaneous return to preindustrial forcing. The response is characterized by an initial fast exponential decay with an e-folding time smaller than 5 yr, leaving behind a remnant that evolves more slowly. The slow component is estimated to be small at present, as measured by the global mean near-surface air temperature, and, in the model examined, grows to 0.4°C by 2100 in the A1B scenario from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), and then to 1.4°C by 2300 if one holds radiative forcing fixed after 2100. The dominance of the fast component at present is supported by examining the response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 and by the excellent fit to the model’s ensemble mean twentieth-century evolution with a simple one-box model with no long times scales. }
}

@article{bloch_johnson_2015_feedback_dependence,
author = {Bloch-Johnson, Jonah and Pierrehumbert, Raymond T. and Abbot, Dorian S.},
title = {Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
volume = {42},
number = {12},
pages = {4973-4980},
keywords = {climate sensitivity, nonlinear feedbacks, observational estimates, GCMs, long tail},
doi = {10.1002/2015GL064240},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015GL064240},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2015GL064240},
abstract = {AbstractThe long-term warming from an anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 is often assumed to be proportional to the forcing associated with that increase. This paper examines this linear approximation using a zero-dimensional energy balance model with a temperature-dependent feedback, with parameter values drawn from physical arguments and general circulation models. For a positive feedback temperature dependence, warming increases Earth's sensitivity, while greater sensitivity makes Earth warm more. These effects can feed on each other, greatly amplifying warming. As a result, for reasonable values of feedback temperature dependence and preindustrial feedback, Earth can jump to a warmer state under only one or two CO2 doublings. The linear approximation breaks down in the long tail of high climate sensitivity commonly seen in observational studies. Understanding feedback temperature dependence is therefore essential for inferring the risk of high warming from modern observations. Studies that assume linearity likely underestimate the risk of high warming.},
year = {2015}
}

@article{meinshausen_2011_rcp,
  title={The {RCP} greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300},
  author={Meinshausen, M. and Smith, Steven J and Calvin, K and Daniel, John S and Kainuma, MLT and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Matsumoto, Km and Montzka, SA and Raper, SCB and Riahi, K and others},
  journal={Climatic change},
  volume={109},
  number={1-2},
  pages={213},
  year={2011},
  publisher={Springer},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z}
}

@article{rohrschneider_2019_simple,
  title={On simple representations of the climate response to external radiative forcing},
  author={Rohrschneider, Tim and Stevens, Bjorn and Mauritsen, Thorsten},
  journal={Climate Dynamics},
  volume={53},
  number={5-6},
  pages={3131--3145},
  year={2019},
  publisher={Springer},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-019-04686-4}
}

@Article{smith_2018_fairv1_3,
AUTHOR = {Smith, C. J. and Forster, P. M. and Allen, M. and Leach, N. and Millar, R. J. and Passerello, G. A. and Regayre, L. A.},
TITLE = {FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model},
JOURNAL = {Geoscientific Model Development},
VOLUME = {11},
YEAR = {2018},
NUMBER = {6},
PAGES = {2273--2297},
URL = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/2273/2018/},
DOI = {10.5194/gmd-11-2273-2018}
}

@misc{fair_repo,
    author = {Smith, C. J. and Nicholls, Z. R. J. and Gieseke, R.},
    title = {FaIR: Finite Amplitude Impulse-Reponse simple climate-carbon-cycle model},
    year = {2020},
    publisher = {GitHub},
    journal = {GitHub repository},
    url = {https://github.com/OMS-NetZero/FAIR}
}

@Article{rcmip_phase_1,
  AUTHOR = {Nicholls, Z. R. J. and Meinshausen, M. and Lewis, J. and Gieseke, R. and Dommenget, D. and Dorheim, K. and Fan, C.-S. and Fuglestvedt, J. S. and Gasser, T. and Gol\"uke, U. and Goodwin, P. and Hartin, C. and Hope, A. P. and Kriegler, E. and Leach, N. J. and Marchegiani, D. and McBride, L. A. and Quilcaille, Y. and Rogelj, J. and Salawitch, R. J. and Samset, B. H. and Sandstad, M. and Shiklomanov, A. N. and Skeie, R. B. and Smith, C. J. and Smith, S. and Tanaka, K. and Tsutsui, J. and Xie, Z.},
  TITLE = {Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response},
  JOURNAL = {Geoscientific Model Development},
  VOLUME = {13},
  YEAR = {2020},
  NUMBER = {11},
  PAGES = {5175--5190},
  URL = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/5175/2020/},
  DOI = {10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020}
}

@misc{pint,
  author = {H. E. Grecco and others},
  title = {Pint: Operate and manipulate physical quantities in Python},
  year = {2020},
  publisher = {GitHub},
  journal = {GitHub repository},
  url = {https://github.com/hgrecco/pint}
}

@Article{Dommenget_2011_greb,
  author={Dommenget, Dietmar
  and Fl{\"o}ter, Janine},
  title={Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model},
  journal={Climate Dynamics},
  year={2011},
  month={Dec},
  day={01},
  volume={37},
  number={11},
  pages={2143-2165},
  abstract={The future climate change projections are essentially based on coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern with arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change and the causes of their uncertainties is very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex CGCM simulations. In the study presented here we will introduce a very simple, globally resolved energy balance (GREB) model, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the strongly simplified energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex CGCMs. It provides a fast tool for the conceptual understanding and development of hypotheses for climate change studies, which shall build a basis or starting point for more detailed studies of observations and CGCM simulations. It is based on the surface energy balance by very simple representations of solar and thermal radiation, the atmospheric hydrological cycle, sensible turbulent heat flux, transport by the mean atmospheric circulation and heat exchange with the deeper ocean. Despite some limitations in the representations of the basic processes, the models climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern are within the uncertainties of the IPCC models simulations. It is capable of simulating aspects of the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land-sea warming contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC models in amplitude and structure. The results give some insight into the understanding of the land-sea contrast and the polar amplification. The GREB model suggests that the regional inhomogeneous distribution of atmospheric water vapor and the non-linear sensitivity of the downward thermal radiation to changes in the atmospheric water vapor concentration partly cause the land-sea contrast and may also contribute to the polar amplification. The combination of these characteristics causes, in general, dry and cold regions to warm more than other regions.},
  issn={1432-0894},
  doi={10.1007/s00382-011-1026-0},
  url={https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1026-0}
}

@Article{hartin_2015_hector,
  AUTHOR = {Hartin, C. A. and Patel, P. and Schwarber, A. and Link, R. P. and Bond-Lamberty, B. P.},
  TITLE = {A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0},
  JOURNAL = {Geoscientific Model Development},
  VOLUME = {8},
  YEAR = {2015},
  NUMBER = {4},
  PAGES = {939--955},
  URL = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/8/939/2015/},
  DOI = {10.5194/gmd-8-939-2015}
}

@article{Meinshausen_2011_magicc,
 author = {Meinshausen, M. and Raper, S. C. B. and Wigley, T. M. L.},
 title = {Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, {MAGICC6} – Part 1: Model description and calibration},
 journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
 volume = {11},
 year = {2011},
 number = {4},
 pages = {1417--1456},
 doi = {10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011},
}

@article{Gieseke_2018_pymagicc,
  doi = {10.21105/joss.00516},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.00516},
  year = {2018},
  publisher = {The Open Journal},
  volume = {3},
  number = {22},
  pages = {516},
  author = {Robert Gieseke and Sven N. Willner and Matthias Mengel},
  title = {Pymagicc: A Python wrapper for the simple climate model MAGICC},
  journal = {Journal of Open Source Software}
}

@Article{Gasser_2020_asdfjk,
  AUTHOR = {Gasser, T. and Crepin, L. and Quilcaille, Y. and Houghton, R. A. and Ciais, P. and Obersteiner, M.},
  TITLE = {Historical {CO$_2$} emissions from land use and land cover change and their
  uncertainty},
  JOURNAL = {Biogeosciences},
  VOLUME = {17},
  YEAR = {2020},
  NUMBER = {15},
  PAGES = {4075--4101},
  URL = {https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/4075/2020/},
  DOI = {10.5194/bg-17-4075-2020}
}

@article{Goodwin_2019_ggfp6s,
    author = "Goodwin, Philip and Williams, Richard G. and Roussenov, Vassil M. and Katavouta, Anna",
    doi = "10.1029/2019gl082887",
    year = "2019",
    month = "jul",
    publisher = "American Geophysical Union ({AGU})",
    volume = "46",
    number = "13",
    pages = "7554--7564",
    title = "Climate Sensitivity From Both Physical and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks",
    journal = "Geophysical Research Letters"
}