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Add checks/alerts for "unrealistic" forecasts #554

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braddf opened this issue Jan 20, 2025 · 0 comments
Open

Add checks/alerts for "unrealistic" forecasts #554

braddf opened this issue Jan 20, 2025 · 0 comments

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@braddf
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braddf commented Jan 20, 2025

From Full-Stack Chat notes:

  • Idea: checks for normality, e.g. shape of data,
  • Idea: Massive changed from one forecast period to the next (I.e. jagged shape / unrealistically steep ramps)
    E.g. >+100% increase, or >70% decrease
    -Idea: Meaningful discrepancies between models, i.e. Day-Ahead should remain true-ish to the Intra-Day, maybe within 20%
  • Can test these alert boundaries on the Backtest
    • Aim to get of the order of 5-10 false-positives each year
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