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[Discuss] Plots of countries with low infected and high recovered data #423
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Do you think that we should have used exponential distribution or something else instead of a simple shift of C to produce R, for the full complements? |
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What I don't understand seeing these plots is how can the infected be that low, while the recovered are so high. I mean, when I try to read these plot and interpret them, for example in Japan, up until October, I can see that there are two peaks if infected at around <20.000. So I would expect that the plot of recoveries would be as high as 40.000 or 50.000. How can it reach 150.000 for example? How is this explained? Similarly for all the other plots above. |
In Japan, we experienced two waves and we are in third wave. In the first wave (Apr - May), recovery period was too long because collapse of the medical care system occurred and no medicines were found. However, in the second wave (Jul - Oct), recovery period appears short because we have some effective medicines (not approved, in clinical study), yonger people (people un-associated to sever diseases) were infected. In the third wave (Nov - ), older people tend to be infected and we are facing with medical collapse at this time... This can be discussed with the history of sigma values (recovery rates) calculated with |
My intuition says that all the recoveries, must first pass from infections stage, so they must be somehow represented in Infected plot. How can recoveries be that high, when we have too few infections compared? Where all the rest recoveries come from? |
I think this occurs when infection speed << recovery speed. |
We need linelist data to discuss this issue deeply, but I do not think this is invalid because recovery speed can be over infection speed. |
So this means that a high percent of the daily confirmed as soon as they are added to infected, a large amount of infected moves to recovered and so the accumulative recovered plot increases, while the infections flux remains constant? That's why we don't see large increases in infections because soon the recoveries kick in and subtract infections? |
So this behavior is correct and can happen when recovery speed > infection speed ? |
Yes, I think. |
What do you mean the flow of cases? The compartments we use aren't supposed to indicate such population flow from one to another? |
I meant that we do not know when a case (confirmed on 01Nov2020 as an example) recovered. |
Can we close this discussion? |
I think yes! |
Thank you! |
Summary
I noticed that for the majority of the countries, the recovered data are increased but there is a weird lower infected plot line. It is kind of weird to see that for example there are few infected, but we have a high recovered plot and I wondered what is the physical interpretation of that? That someone who gets confirmed almost immediately gets recovered?
Are we doing something wrong? Is it the complementary method we apply? How can this be reworked? Is this actually a problem?
I mean the following plots for example:
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