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Partner With Rational Optimists.html
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Partner With Rational Optimists.html
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<p>![[Naval-Ep12.mp3]]</p>
<p>
Don’t partner with cynics and pessimists; their beliefs are
self-fulfilling
</p>
<p>Don’t partner with pessimists</p>
<p>
<strong>Nivi:</strong> Let’s do this last tweet. You said, “Don’t partner
with cynics, and pessimists. Their beliefs are self-fulfilling.”
</p>
<p>
<strong>Naval:</strong> Yes. Essentially, to create things, you have to be
a rational optimist. Rational in the sense that you have to see the world
for what it really is. And yet you have to be optimistic about your own
capabilities, and your capability to get things done.
</p>
<p>
We all know people who are consistently pessimistic, who will shoot down
everything. Everyone in their life has the helpful critical guy, right? He
thinks he’s being helpful, but he’s actually being critical, and he’s a
downer on everything.
</p>
<p>
That person will not only never do anything great in their lives, they’ll
prevent other people around them from doing something great. They think
their job is to shoot holes in things. And it’s okay to shoot holes in
things as long as you come up with a solution.
</p>
<p>
There’s also the classic military line, “Either lead, follow, or get out
of the way.” And these people want a fourth option, where they don’t want
to lead, they don’t want to follow, but they don’t want to get out of the
way. They want to tell you why the thing is not going to work.
</p>
<p>
And all the really successful people I know have a very strong action
bias. They just do things. The easiest way to figure out if something is
viable or not is by doing it. At least do the first step, and the second
step, and the third, and then decide.
</p>
<p>
So, if you want to be successful in life, creating wealth, or having good
relationships, or being fit, or even being happy, you need to have an
action bias towards getting what you want.
</p>
<p><strong>Partner with rational optimists</strong></p>
<p>
And you have to be optimistic about it. Not irrationally. You know,
there’s nothing worse than someone who is foolhardy and chasing something
that’s not worth it.
</p>
<p>
That’s why I say rational optimist. But you have to be rational. Know all
the pitfalls. Know the downsides, but still keep your chin up.
</p>
<p>
You’ve got one life on this planet. Why not try to build something big?
This is the beauty of Elon Musk, and why I think he inspires so many
people, it’s just because he takes on really, really big audacious tasks.
And he provides an example for people to think big.
</p>
<p>
And it takes a lot of work to build even small things. I don’t think the
corner grocery store owner is working any less hard than Elon Musk, or
pouring any less sweat and toil into it. Maybe even more.
</p>
<p>
But for whatever reason, education, circumstance, they didn’t get the
chance to think as big, so the outcome is not as big. So, it’s just better
to think big. Obviously, rationally, within your means, stay optimistic.
</p>
<p>
The cynics and the pessimists, what they’re really saying, it’s
unfortunate, but they’re basically saying, “I’ve given up. I don’t think I
can do anything. And so the world to me just looks like a world where
nobody can do anything. And so why should you go do something because if
you fail, then I’m right, which is great. But if you succeed, then you
just make me look bad.”
</p>
<p><strong>We’re descended from pessimists</strong></p>
<p>
<strong>Nivi:</strong> Yes, it’s probably better to be an irrational
optimist, then it is to be a rational cynic.
</p>
<p>
<strong>Naval:</strong> There’s a completely rational frame on why you
should be an optimist. Historically, if you go back 2,000 years, 5,000
years, 10,000 years, two people are wandering through a jungle, they hear
a tiger. One’s an optimist, and says, “Oh, it’s not headed our way.” The
other one says, “I’m a pessimist, I’m out of here.” And the pessimist runs
and survives, and the optimist gets eaten.
</p>
<p>
So, we’re descended from pessimists. We’re genetically hardwired to be
pessimists. But modern society is far, far safer. There are no tigers
wandering around the street. It’s very unlikely that you will end up in
total ruin, although you should avoid total ruin.
</p>
<p>
Much more likely that the upside is unlimited, and the downside is
limited. So, adapting for modern society means overriding your pessimism,
and taking slightly irrationally optimistic bets because the upside is
unlimited if you start the next SpaceX, or Tesla, or Uber, you can make
billions of dollars of value for society, and for yourself, and change the
world.
</p>
<p>
And if you fail, what’s the big deal? You lost a few million dollars of
investor money, and they’ve got plenty more, and that’s the bet they take
on the chances that you will succeed.
</p>
<p>
It made sense to be pessimistic in the past. It makes sense to be
optimistic today, especially if you’re educated and living in a First
World country. Even a Third World country. I actually think the economic
opportunities in Third World countries are much larger.
</p>
<p>
The one thing you have to avoid is the risk of ruin. Ruin means stay out
of jail. So, don’t do anything that’s illegal. It’s never worth it to wear
an orange jumpsuit. And stay out of total catastrophic loss. That could
mean that you stay out of things that could be physically dangerous, hurt
your body.
</p>
<p>
You have to watch your health. And stay out of things that can cause you
to lose all of your capital, all of your savings. So, don’t gamble
everything on one go. But take rationally optimistic bets with big upside.
</p>
<p><strong>BOCTAOE</strong></p>
<p>
<strong>Nivi:</strong> I think there’s people that will try and build up
your ideas, and build on your ideas, no matter how far fetched they might
seem. And then there are people who list all of the obvious exceptions, no
matter how obvious they are.
</p>
<p>
And fortunately in the startup world, I don’t even really get exposed to
the people that are giving you the obvious exceptions, and all the reasons
it’s not going to work. I barely get exposed to that anymore.
</p>
<p>
<strong>Naval:</strong> That’s what Twitter is for. Scott Adams got so
annoyed by this that he came up with a phrase, an acronym, which is “but
of course there are obvious exceptions”, BOCTAOE. And he used to pin that
acronym at the end of his articles for a while.
</p>
<p>
But Twitter is overrun with nitpickers. Whereas exactly as you were
pointing out, Silicon Valley has learned that the upside is so great that
you never look down on the kid who’s wearing a hoodie and has coffee on
his shoes. And just looks like a slob because you don’t know if he’s going
to be the next Mark Zuckerberg, or the next Reid Hoffman.
</p>
<p>
So, you’ve got to treat everybody with respect. You’ve got to look up to
every possibility, and opportunity because the upside is so unlimited, and
the downside is so limited in the modern world, especially with financial
assets and instruments.
</p>
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