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12_Naive forecasting.py
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import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def plot_series(time, series, format="-", start=0, end=None, label=None):
plt.plot(time[start:end], series[start:end], format, label=label)
plt.xlabel("Time")
plt.ylabel("Value")
if label:
plt.legend(fontsize=14)
plt.grid(True)
def trend(time, slope=0):
return slope * time
def seasonal_pattern(season_time):
"""Just an arbitrary pattern, I can change it if I wish"""
return np.where(season_time < 0.4,
np.cos(season_time * 2 * np.pi),
1 / np.exp(3 * season_time))
def seasonality(time, period, amplitude=1, phase=0):
"""Repeats the same pattern at each period"""
season_time = ((time + phase) % period) / period
return amplitude * seasonal_pattern(season_time)
def white_noise(time, noise_level=1, seed=None):
rnd = np.random.RandomState(seed)
return rnd.randn(len(time)) * noise_level
time = np.arange(4 * 365 + 1)
slope = 0.05
baseline = 10
amplitude = 40
series = baseline + trend(time, slope) + seasonality(time, period=365, amplitude=amplitude)
noise_level = 5
noise = white_noise(time, noise_level, seed=42)
series += noise
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
plot_series(time, series)
plt.show()
split_time = 1000
time_train = time[:split_time]
x_train = series[:split_time]
time_valid = time[split_time:]
x_valid = series[split_time:]
naive_forecast = series[split_time - 1:-1]
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
plot_series(time_valid, x_valid, label="Series")
plot_series(time_valid, naive_forecast, label="Forecast")
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 6))
plot_series(time_valid, x_valid, start=0, end=150, label="Series")
plot_series(time_valid, naive_forecast, start=1, end=151, label="Forecast")
errors = naive_forecast - x_valid
abs_errors = np.abs(errors)
mae = abs_errors.mean()
mae